Muva nje, iBitcoin ibonakala isenkingeni. Yize intengo yeBitcoin ibonakala ishintshashintsha ngokweqile, i-cryptocurrency ibisesikhathini sokuhlanganiswa emasontweni amabili edlule, ngemuva kokushaya kancane ama- $ 7,470. Ukuzulazula phakathi kwendawo ephakeme engu- $ 6,000 nendawo ephansi engu- $ 7,000. Okulandelayo, i-Bitcoin izoyaphi?
Isikhathi eside, abantu bebengabaza ngenani eliyisisekelo lama-cryptocurrensets. Babala isivinini sokuthengiselana “esisheshayo” seBitcoin, ama-Ethereum hacks, nokunye “ukushiyeka” embonini, bethi lesi sigaba sefa asinakusasa. Kodwa-ke, ezweni lanamuhla elineziyaluyalu, isimo se-macroeconomic siyathuthuka, ikakhulukazi ama-cryptocurrensets, ikakhulukazi iBitcoin.
Ngokombiko oshicilelwe yiBloomberg, iBitcoin yakha amandla emakethe enkulu yezinkunzi. Umbiko ugcizelele ukuthi u-2020 kuzoba unyaka lapho iBitcoin iba igolide ledijithali. "Lo nyaka uvivinyo olukhulu lokushintshela kweBitcoin kumali eyimali efana negolide, futhi silindele ukuthi ludlulise lolu vivinyo."
Inani labantu abathanda i-blockchain ne-cryptocurrency liyakhula
Ngokwenhlolovo eyenziwe nguPaxful, imakethe yokuhweba yomhlaba wonke ye-P2P bitcoin, abaseMelika abanolwazi ngama-cryptocurrensets bakhombisile ukukhulisa inzalo kubuchwepheshe be-blockchain nakuma-cryptocurrensets. Leli qembu labantu liya ngokuya libuka izimpahla zedijithali njengezithathe indawo yohlelo lwezezimali “olungaphelele”.
Ngokombiko wocwaningo okhishwe ngo-Ephreli 23, i-cryptocurrency ikhula njengempahla. Cishe ama-50% wabaphenduli bakholelwa ukuthi izimo eziphuthumayo ngaphakathi kohlelo lwendabuko lwezezimali zizosebenza njengethuba lokusiza abantu ukuthi bagxile kuBitcoin njengenye indlela.
Ngokwenhlolovo, ukusetshenziswa okuvame kakhulu kweBitcoin kufaka phakathi izinkokhelo zangempela (69.2%) nokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali nenkohlakalo (50.4%).
U-Artur Schaback, isikhulu esiphezulu sezisebenzi kanye nomsunguli obambisene noPaxful, uthe enkulumweni yakhe: “Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi abantu abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi ukutholwa okujwayelekile kuzotholakala eminyakeni eyisithupha kuya kweyishumi ezayo. Ngokuphambene nalokho, abanye abaphendulile bakholelwa ukuthi efanayo Ibhamuza le-cryptocurrency lizoqhuma esikhathini esifushane. Nginethemba lesimo sokuqala, ngakho-ke ngicabanga ukuthi njengemboni, kufanele silwele ukudala imikhiqizo eminingi futhi sisebenzise imikhiqizo eminingi emacaleni okusetshenziswa kwangempela kwempilo. Siza ukusheshisa ukutholwa okujwayelekile. ”
Ngokwesimo sobhadane lomqhele omusha womhlaba wonke, uPaxful ukholelwa ukuthi kokubili i-cryptocurrency nezinhlelo zendabuko zezimali ziyahlolwa, okuchaza ngezinga elithile ukuthi kungani intengo ye-BTC inyuka njengoba i-BTC iba yimpahla ephephile.
USchaback ugcizelele ukuthi uma kuqhathaniswa nangaphambilini, ukuqwashisa kwabantu ngeBitcoin ngokungangabazeki kuphakeme manje. “Ngiyakhumbula ngesikhathi siqala, akekho owayazi ngeBitcoin futhi waze wacabanga ngegama elithi'Bitcoin '. Kodwa-ke, kusukela emiphumeleni yocwaningo kulo nyaka nangonyaka odlule, abantu abaningi bazwile ngeBitcoin. Abantu abaningi bayayihlanganisa nemibono ehlukene efana nemali nobuchwepheshe. Luselude ukhalo okusamele siluhambe, kodwa ngizimisele ngokubona imikhiqizo eminingi ezosiza ukuthi yande. ”
Mayelana nezithiyo zokutholwa, ucwaningo luphinde lwagcizelela ukuthi ama-53.8% wabaphenduli bakholelwa ukuthi ukungabi nalwazi olufanele kuthikameza ukwandiswa kwemali yama-cryptocurrensets.
Ngokwalo mbiko, abaphendulile bakholelwa ukuthi izinto eziyinhloko ezisiza ukukhuphula izinga lokutholwa yizimayini ezihambahambayo, ukuvuselelwa kwama-altcoins, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezikhungo kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezinkampani ubuchwepheshe be-blockchain.
I-COO kaPaxful iphawule ngezinselelo ezizayo: “Inselelo enkulu kunazo zonke kusalwazi lwe-cryptocurrency uqobo. Siyazi ukuthi abantu abaningi bazwile ngakho, kepha ngicabanga ukuthi yisizathu esingalungile, njengokugembula nokukhwabanisa kwezinga. Ngenxa yalokhu, izethameli ezijwayelekile zisenokwesaba. Njengomkhakha, le yinselelo yethu enkulu. ”

Ikusasa le-Bitcoin liyaqhubeka nokululama
Ngemuva kokubona ukwehla kwevolumu yokuhweba emasontweni ambalwa edlule, ivolumu yokuhweba yekusasa leBitcoin isiqalile ukubuyela emuva. Ngokuya ngemininingwane yakamuva ye-CME, imikhiqizo yayo ifike phezulu ngenyanga edlule ngokwama-akhawunti asebenzayo, ngezinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiwe elingu-161%.
Ngokwemibiko, umlawuli wase-US, iSecurities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ukuqinisekisile ukuthi iMedallion Fund (iMedal Fund) engaphansi kweRenaissance Technologies manje isiyakwazi ukungena emakethe ye-Bitcoin future future. Lesi sikhwama saziwa ngokusebenza kwaso okubuyiselayo okuvelele kuze kube manje kulo nyaka.
Ngokwolwazi, i-Renaissance Technology izohlinzeka ngenkontileka yesikhathi esizayo ye-CME Group ekhokhelwa imali, i-CME ingomunye wabahlinzeki bakusasa bokuqala be-bitcoin.
Isikhwama se-hedge fund esingama- $ 10 billion ngaphansi kweRenaissance sisanda kuzakhela igama kwabezindaba. Yize igciwane elisha lomqhele lifake izimakethe zomhlaba ezinxushunxushwini eziqhubekayo, isikhwama sizuze ukukhula okungama-24% kuze kube manje kulo nyaka. Ngokusho kwe-CNBC, isikali sokuphatha seMedal Fund sicishe sibe yi-US $ 10 billion, okulingana cishe ne-RMB 70 billion. Kulinganiselwa ngesilinganiso sokuphatha samashumi ezigidigidi zamadola, imali yalo nyaka icishe ibe yizigidigidi ezingama-3.9 zamadola aseMelika, okulingana cishe nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-30; ngemuva kokudonswa kwemali yokuphatha nokwabelana ngokusebenza, lesi sikhwama sinenzuzo ephelele yemali engaba yizigidigidi ezingama-2.4 zamadola aseMelika, okulingana nemali engama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-17.
Ngokwe-Wall Street Journal, kusukela ngo-Ephreli 14, isikhwama semallall sinesivuno esiqoqekayo esingu-39% kulo nyaka. Ngisho nasemakethe kaMashi i- “Great Falls” uBuffett ayengayiboni ngesikhathi sakhe sokuphila, iMedal Fund isazuze u-9.9%. Ngenyanga efanayo, i-S & P 500 yehle ngo-12.51%, kwathi i-Dow yehla ngo-13.74%, zombili zashaya ukwehla okukhulu ngenyanga kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2008.
Akungabazeki ukuthi lesi sikhwama semedallion, esingakaze silahlekelwe yimali selokhu saqala futhi esingathola futhi izimbuyiselo zansuku zonke phakathi nenkinga yezomnotho, simele ukuqashelwa kwemali eyindabuko emakethe ye-cryptocurrency, futhi nakanjani izoletha okukhulu izinzuzo emakethe ye-CME Bitcoin yesikhathi esizayo. uketshezi.
Inqubomgomo yokunciphisa engenamkhawulo ingakhuthaza ukulwa ne-Bitcoin
Naphezu kokuphindeka ngamandla kwamanani entengo, kufaka phakathi ama-cryptocurrensets, umbono womnotho womhlaba uhlala ukhathaza. Emasontweni amahlanu edlule, abasebenzi abayizigidi ezingama-26 bafake izicelo zokungasebenzi e-United States kuphela. Ezingeni lenkampani, izinkampani zocwaningo zilindele ukuthi inkampani ilahlekelwe yizigidigidi zamadola kumali engenayo.
Ngakho-ke, akumangazi ukuthi amabhange amakhulu nohulumeni emhlabeni wonke benze imizamo yokusindisa abantu, izinkampani, nezinkampani zonke.
Ukuze kuncishiswe usongo lokwehla komnotho okubhekene ne-United States ngenxa yomthelela walolu bhubhane, iFed "inesinyathelo esikhulu" esingakaze sibonwe. Ngobusuku bangoMashi 15, iFed yehlise amanani entengo afinyelela ku-zero futhi yethula uhlelo olukhulu lokunciphisa inani lama-US $ 700 billion. NgoMashi 17, iFederal Reserve yethule iCommercial Paper Financing Facility (CPFF) kanye nePrimary Dealer Credit Mechanism (PDCF) ukuhlinzeka ngemali kubanikezeli bamaphepha bezentengiselwano. NgoMashi 23, iFederal Reserve yakhipha inqubomgomo engenamkhawulo yokunciphisa (i-QE) inqubomgomo futhi yaqala “ukuthenga” cishe yonke imikhiqizo yezikweletu emakethe ngaphandle kwamasheya okunikeza ukuxhaswa okwanele kwemali emakethe.
Abantu abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi izenzo ezilandelanayo zeFed ziveza ubucayi besimo sase-US.
I-Bank of Japan (BOJ) nayo iqinisekisile lo mkhuba. Ngokusho kweNikkei Asian Review, icaphuna abantu abajwayelene nalolu daba, iBhange laseJapan lifuna ukuthenga okungenamkhawulo kwamabhondi kahulumeni waseJapan ngemizamo yokuvuselela umnotho. Ithemba nokwandisa uhlelo lwayo lokwehlisa inani eliphindwe kabili ukuphinda kabili ukuthengwa kwamabhondi ezinkampani nephepha lezentengiselwano.
Yize i-United States isungule uhlelo olulinganiselwe lokuthengwa kwamabhondi, uMax Bronstein, oyilungu leqembu lesikhungo sokutshala imali lokushintshanisa nge-cryptocurrency Coinbase, wagomela ngokuthi “uhlelo olukhona manje seluwele ngokuphelele.
Abantu abaningi ngokwengeziwe bakholelwa ukuthi amafa we-crypto asezingeni eliphansi futhi ayindlala azohlomula kulo mkhuba obheke emalini engaziwa nasemikhakheni yezimali uma kuqhathaniswa nezimali ze-fiat zamabhange amakhulu.
Owayengumphathi weGoldman Sachs nomphathi wesikhwama seHedge fund, uRaoul Pal uchaze kuhlelo lwango-Ephreli lwencwadi yezindaba i- "Global Macro Investors" ukuthi ucabanga ukuthi kungenzeka sibone "uhlelo lwethu lwezimali luhluleka" noma "isimo sezimali samanje siwa." “.
I-Bitcoin izozuza kakhulu ekuguqulweni kusuka ohlelweni lwezomthetho kuya ku-ecosystem yedijithali. Ngokuphathelene neBitcoin, uPal wabhala: “Lolu uhlelo lwenani ledijithali oluphelele, oluthembekile, oluqinisekisiwe, oluphephile, lwezezimali nolokubalwa kwezimali. Ikusasa lalo lonke uhlelo lwethu lokuhweba, imali uqobo lwayo nengxenyekazi yayo yokusebenza ayigcini lapho. "
Ubuye wengeza ukuthi iBitcoin kungenzeka ifinyelele ku- $ 100,000 eminyakeni emibili ezayo, futhi iphonse ngisho isamba semali engu- $ 1 million lapho umbono we-macro ushintsha kakhulu.
Ngemuva kwenqubomgomo "yokwehlisa inani elingenamkhawulo", ingabe iBitcoin isazoba "yimpahla ephephile" ngaphansi kwenkinga yezezimali? Mayelana nalokhu, uMike Novogratz, oyi-CEO yeGalaxy Digital, naye wabikezela ukuthi iBitcoin ingalandela igolide ngentuthuko enkulu yamanani, ikakhulukazi ngoba lezi zimpahla ezimbili ziyindlala.
UXu Yingkai, umlingani osungula iBlockVC, uthe kuWeibo ukuthi iBitcoin's 3,800 USD kungenzeka ibe yisisekelo sokwehla kwemakethe. Ngemuva kokuhlukaniswa kweBitcoin (ezinyangeni eziyi-1-2 kamuva), imakethe yaqala ukusimama ngokuphelele. Ngemuva kokuqedwa kokuhlukaniswa uhhafu, ngenxa yokwehla kwamawa Ukwehla kwemali engenayo kuzogxilisa igagasi labavukuzi, kepha ingcindezi yokuthengisa imakethe entsha nayo iphindaphindeke unyaka nonyaka, kanti futhi “nokufa” kulindeleke ukuba kunciphe kancane kancane .
Kodwa-ke, abanye abantu embonini baveze ukuthi "amafa aphephile" ngumqondo wakudala, kepha uma kubhekwa ukuthi iBitcoin inemakethe enkulu futhi ukutholakala kwayo kunamandla kakhulu kunezinye izinhlobo zendabuko, isidingo esizayo sizoqhubeka nokukhuphuka. Ngakho-ke, ngemuva kokuphahlazeka, iBitcoin izolulama ngokushesha kunezimpahla zendabuko zaseMelika. Ngokwalokhu kubuka, i-Bitcoin isengaba nethemba elingcono, kepha ngokubuka kwamanje kwemakethe, akukho ukuphikisana nobungozi.
Eqinisweni, ngemuva kokungena isikhashana eBitcoin, le ntengo iyakhanga kakhulu esikhathini esimaphakathi nesikhathi eside, futhi ingaba yindawo yokuqala emakethe yezinkunzi elandelayo.
I-Bitcoin iqoqa amandla emakethe yezinkunzi yesikhathi esizayo
Umbiko oshicilelwe yiBloomberg uthe iBitcoin ithola amandla emakethe yezinkunzi. Ngisho nesihlokwana sombiko siveze umbono ocacile we-bullish- "Bitcoin Maturity Great Leap Forward". IBloomberg ikholelwa ukuthi kulo nyaka iBitcoin izoqedela isivivinyo esiyisihluthulelo sokushintshela ku-quasi-currency efana negolide.
Umbiko ubalule uchungechunge lwezizathu zokuthi kungani imakethe yeBitcoin ivuthwa. Lo mbiko uphinde waqinisekisa ukuthi "uma umlando ungasetshenziswa njengesiqondisi, iBitcoin ithola uphethiloli ohambisanayo njengoba imakethe yamasheya iqala kabusha."
Ngaphezu kwalokho, uBloomberg uthe iBitcoin negolide, okuyizinto ezimbili eziyiziphephelo emehlweni abantu, kulindeleke ukuthi zizuze kakhulu ekuxakekeni kwamuva nje kwezimakethe okubangelwe wubhubhane lomqhele omusha.
Kepha ngokusho komhlaziyi we-cryptocurrency owaziwayo, uma iBitcoin ifinyelela iphoyinti elithile lentengo, ingahle idale ukuqhuma kwemakethe, ngamanye amazwi, intengo yemali inyuke kakhulu.
NgoMgqibelo owedlule, abalandeli be-Twitter abangama-200,000 nomthengisi ogama lakhe linguCryptoYoda bakhiphe uchungechunge lwakhe lwakamuva lokuhlaziya ezobuchwepheshe, lapho echaze khona ukuthi isakhiwo semakethe yeBitcoin sijwayele ukuwa ngenxa yokwakheka kokuma okwakhiwe okomgexo namaphethini amahlombe-amasiginali amabili we-bearish achazwe izincwadi zokufunda — kepha ukuqhamuka kukaBitcoin kwe- $ 7475 kuzosichitha lesi simo, "kuphoqa izikhindi ukusula izikhundla zazo ngenkathi kukhuthaza ukulangazelela ukuthenga lezi zikhundla":
"Ukuphumelela ezingeni eliphezulu kangaka kuzoholela ekwambeni okufushane okukhulu, futhi ivolumu yama-oda wokuthenga izoshayela ukubuyela emuva okuqinile, ikakhulukazi uma abathengi sebengenile kakade ezingeni eliphansi lokumelana okuphansi."
Lokho afuna ukukuchaza ukuthi uma iBitcoin idlulela ngempumelelo, kungafakazela ukuthi ukuhweba okusemaceleni kwamanje akuyona into ephezulu, kepha inqubo yokuhlanganisa nokuqhubeka nokunyakaza okuya phezulu, okungafinyelela ku- $ 8,000 noma nangaphezulu.
U-Avi Felman-umhwebi kanye nomhlaziyi esikhwameni sezimpahla ze-crypto iBlockTower-ubonile amasiginali amabili obuchwepheshe ngoLwesihlanu olwedlule abonise ngokusobala ukuthi amanani weBitcoin maduze azolungiswa:
Ukulandelana kweDemark (Tom Demark Sequential) kuyinkomba esuselwa esikhathini, eshadini lamakhandlela lamalanga amathathu livela ukulandelana okuqhubekayo kokubala kokuthengisa. Isimo esifanayo senzeke ezikhathini ezimbili ezedlule lapho intengo yemali yehle maphakathi no-Mashi nangoDisemba 2019, kepha yafinyelela phezulu ku- $ 10,500 ekuqaleni konyaka.
U-Ethereum okwamanje ubonakala engakwazi ukudabula izilinganiso ezihambayo zezinsuku ezingama-50 nezinsuku ezingama-200 zeshadi lamakhandlela lezinsuku ezi-3.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, uDonAlt wathi yize umugqa wosuku wamuva ungakhombisi "ukuthambekela okuqinile okuya phansi", "wawusondele kakhulu ekwambekeni kweBitcoin ngenhla kwamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane." Uveze ukuthi ukuthambeka kwentengo yeBitcoin bekuhlukile kunangoFebhuwari Ukufana ngesakhiwo samanje.
Umbiko weBloomberg "I-Bitcoin Maturity Jump" ibike ukuthi iBitcoin ilungiselela imakethe yezinkunzi ezinkulu. Kulo mbiko, umbhali uchaze kabanzi ngokuhlobana phakathi kweBitcoin nenkomba ye-S & P 500, igolide, uziro nenzalo engemihle yenzalo. Ngokusho kombiko, ukuguquguquka kwemakethe yamasheya kusheshise ukushintshela kweBitcoin kuya "kwigolide ledijithali".
Ngo-2020, kuzokwahlulelwa ukuthi i-Bitcoin ingashintsha kusuka kwimpahla eyingozi yokuqagela ibe “yigolide ledijithali”. Ngokombono wokushintshashintsha, ukungaziphathi kahle kweBitcoin kubonakala kwehlile, kuyilapho ukuguquguquka kwemakethe yamasheya sekuqalile ukukhuphuka. Ukusabela okunjalo emakethe kuzophinda kuvumele abantu abaningi ukuthi badlulisele izimali kwimpahla ebethelwe.